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What are the recession odds for 2023?

Recession odds for 2023 have jumped sharply as the Fed’s massive tightening campaign has unfolded. The fourth-quarter forecast is up from just 33 percent in the first-quarter poll and 52 percent in the second quarter. Forecasting is a practice destined for failure almost as much as predicting the weather or a hurricane’s path.

Will the US economy enter a recession in 2023?

. More likely than not, the U.S. economy will enter a recession this year, Bankrate’s Fourth-Quarter Economic Indicator poll found. The U.S. economy has a 64 percent chance of contracting in 2023, according to the average forecast among economists.

What are the risks of a recession in 2023?

Risks of a recession in the U.S. remain uncomfortably high moving into 2023, although risks to the forecast appear to be improving. The labor market continues to moderate, as does inflation, which has allowed the Fed to slow the pace of hike rates heading into next year.

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